Pandemic predictions
Pandemic predictions “The only function of (economic) forecasting is to make astrology look respectable” JK Galbraith You can guess where I am going with this. And just so we’re clear, I am only referring to the COVID-19 disease predictions here, not the economic ones. Now, I know some of you may not take too kindly to my comparing infectious disease epidemiologists to astrologers, and some others (hopefully not too many!) may even side with their personal astrologers. But the point I want to make is that though disease prediction models have a rational scientific basis, the large number of known and factors involved, increase the uncertainty to an extent that they become largely unreliable. The other common feature of both these fields (and economics as well) is that wrong predictions have no deterrence value: there is always good enough reason as to why you were wrong in the first place, ranging from “Jupiter is not in a position to shower its grace (sic)” to “..fewer p...