Random ramblings

  Hidden figures, misleading numbers   In times of uncertainty, it is natural for people to seek solace in “hard data”. And the lay press obliges with a deluge of numbers: daily new cases and deaths, number of tests, scary estimates from Covid risk-calculators, vaccination efficacy figures, and many more. But the provenance of some of these widely publicized numbers is hardly ever clear to the consumer. Even when the origins are apparent, the analyses and the jargon surrounding it are a very effective deterrent to understanding. How many of us will persevere on in the face of “proportional-hazards regression models”, with some “gradient boosted trees” thrown in for good measure! Even more exasperating are the misleading ways that some simple data are presented to the public. In this post, I want to highlight a couple of instances, one relating simply to bad presentation, and the other possibly arising out of misinterpretation of the data. Now, please do note that I am not ...